Real Estate Market 2024 – Buyer Support Programs
The real estate market in 2024 was boosted by the government's 2% Safe Credit program. The project was intended to help buyers purchase their first apartment or house, or build or complete a new home. Applications for loan subsidies could be submitted until the end of 2023, and the peak number of reservation agreements occurred in the first quarter of 2024.
However, at the beginning of 2024, Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK) suspended the application process for the Safe Credit 2% program. It proposed a new financial support plan for Poles, the "Mieszkanie na Start" (Apartment for Start). Borrowers had hoped the program would launch in the fall of 2024, but the government scheduled its launch for 2025.
Real estate market 2024 – development investments
The turmoil surrounding lending support has created uncertainty and indecision about whether to focus on the secondary or primary market . Initially, primary apartment sales declined significantly, but June saw an increase in the number of units sold compared to May 2024. July 2024, in turn, brought another decline in new apartment sales as the cheapest units sold out and prices rose.
As many as 50,000 apartments in developer standard have also appeared on the 2024 real estate market in 7 major cities in Poland:
- Warsaw,
- Wrocław,
- Lodz,
- Poznań,
- Katowice,
- Krakow.
New investments were also made in Szczecin, Bydgoszcz, Rzeszów, Kielce, Białystok and Lublin, among others.
And what are the prices of developer apartments? The most expensive were:
- Warsaw – approx. PLN 18,000 per m2,
- Krakow – approx. PLN 16,000 per m2,
- Wrocław – approx. PLN 14,000 per m2.
Prices this year have increased in Łódź (+12.7%) and Kielce (+11.5%), and decreased in Gdańsk (-0.6%) and Szczecin (-8.8%).
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What did the real estate market look like in 2024 for the secondary sector?
The 2024 real estate market also saw turmoil in the secondary market. With the end of the 2% Safe Loan program, sales of these units declined significantly, leading to more offers than takers.
Prices per square meter began to decline, but the situation slowly stabilized in the second quarter. The price per square meter remained at the same level as in April 2024 in:
- Krakow,
- Poznań,
- Tricity,
- Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis.
The prices of apartments that have been waiting for buyers for a long time may gradually fall.
What are the factors influencing the real estate market in 2024?
Factors influencing the real estate market in 2024 include:
- Demand, which is influenced in particular by the growth of the population in a given place and the level of wealth of the inhabitants.
- Supply, which results from the availability of real estate on the market. When supply is limited and demand increases, prices generally rise. One way to stabilize this situation is to increase housing availability, which is facilitated by new investments.
- The property's location – whether in the center of a large metropolis or in a smaller town, for example. This is important whether you're investing privately, for example in a home, or for business purposes, for example in warehouse space . The development prospects of a given location are equally important.
- Infrastructure development – when a property is located near highways, airports, expressways, subways, and service networks, its attractiveness increases. This may result in a higher price.
- The economic and political situation – this particularly concerns economic crises, such as those caused by the pandemic, the unemployment rate, and the minimum wage. These impact the overall situation in the country, inflation, and Poles' household budgets. Government financial support programs are also important and can facilitate the decision to purchase your own home.
- Lending options – loan availability, repayment terms (interest rates, installment amounts, etc.). Favorable lending terms increase the chances of increased interest in apartments.
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